Pasayten's Methow Valley Bulletin Board

Aurora over Iceland right now:
https://www.space.com/extreme-solar-sto ... tober-2024

Thanks for the info, from what I'm finding this storm is supposedly at the high end of a G4 and could possibly cause some disruptions in some electrical systems, GPS, and communication systems, however weather guesses are pretty much just that Guessers hoping they are right and this could actually be a flop

G5 is also the top of the scale for geomagnetic storms, so pretty much all humungous geomagnetic storms would be G5.

Typically there are a handful of G5 storms every 11-year solar cycle.

There is evidence that much larger geomagnetic storms occur on longer timescales:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyake_event

It is also important to keep in mind that we only have estimates for how big the Carrington event was. Given the technology of 1859 we didn't have the same tools to measure such an event so it is difficult to draw a direct comparison.

A better comparison might be the 1989 solar flares:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_198 ... etic_storm

Which caused aurora to be visible in Texas and Florida and is probably somewhat more intense than the current one.

The current storm was caused by a solar flare in the X1.8 range, while the 1989 event was caused by a solar flare estimated at X15.

https://www.space.com/severe-solar-stor ... 10-11-2024

Best recent estimates is that we're looking at a G4 event here, but probably at the upper end of the range.

mister_coffee wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2024 6:52 am The Carrington event was much, much, much bigger than the current CME bearing down on us. And also immensely larger than the May 2024 event which is perhaps a bit smaller than the one it looks like we'll be having in the next few days.

As a point of comparison, aurora from the Carrington event were visible in Hawaii, Cuba, and Columbia (!). Best predictions is that we'll have aurora as far south as Northern California.

In measuring solar storms just how much difference is there between a G4 and a G5? Is each uptick like 10 times stronger than the previous? i.e. G2 10x a G1 and so forth.
From what I could quickly find the Carrington was supposedly a G5

The Carrington event was much, much, much bigger than the current CME bearing down on us. And also immensely larger than the May 2024 event which is perhaps a bit smaller than the one it looks like we'll be having in the next few days.

As a point of comparison, aurora from the Carrington event were visible in Hawaii, Cuba, and Columbia (!). Best predictions is that we'll have aurora as far south as Northern California.

I think the comet A3 is much more exciting:

https://www.outsideonline.com/adventure ... las-comet/

Being as these solar storms are ranked G1 to G5 and this is supposedly a G4, will this be a repeat of the Carrington Event? We'll maybe not a complete repeat but supposedly going to be very close as the Carrinton was supposedly a G5 and this one is supposedly a G4.
https://www.earth.com/news/noaa-severe- ... r-10-2024/