Pasayten's Methow Valley Bulletin Board

The recent polls that have dropped show that the Harris campaign got a substantial debate bounce. Best guess if you squint is that this has moved the race about five points in her favor, with consistent nationwide polls showing her above 50 percent.

Most interesting were the high-quality statewide polls from Iowa (!) and Alaska (!!!), both of which showed her within 4 points of Trump. I don't think it is likely or even possible that Democrats will win those states, but it is an opportunity to spend some of that massive pile of campaign cash and force the Trump campaign to spend money and people defending those states.

If that five point move holds up a lot of other states are in play and a lot of the current "swing" states are probably safely for Harris.

This drama also hurts Rs down-ballot and makes their job of holding the House and capturing the Senate more difficult.

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Pearl….that IS funny!


Interesting result from the debate…..

Some very close ‘toss-up’ States - in electoral votes - begin to look differently!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -campaigns
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXmi5ea2hIY

Sarah Cooper, gotta love her.

Thanks for the video. Trump and Vance berate people and they don't have a clue.

When pigs fly. George Will endorses Harris. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9 ... sVfcC_tGrA


Pal: have you not seen the you tubes of the employers in Springfield who say they wish they had more Haitian workers?
https://www.tiktok.com/@facesofhaiti/vi ... 2960328990

Great! Also, you will hear or read 2 news stories. Springfield residents that are fed up with the Haitians and the other story that the residents are not taking kindly of Trump making this accusation. The mayor had a little talk about it.

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“They are eating the pets” song. Hilarious….!

https://x.com/eyeslasho/status/1834618663086788782
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Child-less cat ladies won the night, for sure!
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I think Harris' facial expressions, especially when Trump said particularly outrageous things, were priceless. And a big deal. Political candidates, like trial lawyers and TV news people, are trained to keep a straight face even when people around them say the most deranged things. Trump has used that fact to his advantage through his entire career -- because to somebody out in TV land that can make what he is saying sound not so crazy.

Her bemused expression when Trump went on his rant about immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio gave all of us permission to admit that this jerk is totally nuts.

If we had a normally functioning electorate, and if Trump were a normal candidate, either the pet eating rant or "concepts of a plan" would be campaign-ending events. With what we have now it is just Tuesday. And those were only the absolute worst howlers he made. When Rs complain about the debate being "three against one" they are badly mistaken: it was four against one, and Donald Trump was his own worst enemy that day.

Ouch. Lincoln Project recap of Republican responses
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeD-xLWA4ro

What was quite effective was her body language. Placing her hand under her chin while listening to Trump came across like she was listening to a child giving excuses for something the child had done and was trying to talk their way out of trouble. Several times she did that. She also may have consulted a psychologist about his behavior and how to deal with it.

Oh, and one more thing...

It has been said by a bunch of people that celebrity endorsements are irrelevant.

On the other hand, in the 24 hours after Taylor Swift's endorsement over 330_000 people registered to vote. In an election that might well be decided by a few thousand votes in swing states like Georgia or Arizona that might matter quite a bit. And people who are registered to vote right now are very likely to vote in the election coming up in less than two months and won't be accounted for in likely voter models that the polls are using.

Probably for the best that there will likely be only one debate.

I enjoyed watching that once. Watching the same stuff go down again is going to be like watching someone beat up a disabled child.

If the polls move a lot more than most people expect in Harris' favor it is likely he will try to get another debate, because he would have nothing to lose at that point.

One thing I keep wondering about... Kamala Harris made this look easy. I can't understand why Hilary Clinton or Chris Christie couldn't have wrapped him around his own axle the same way in 2016. Trump has always been notoriously thin-skinned and notoriously easily distracted and led down rabbit holes. He has been on media for decades and there are many hours of video of him and how he talks and how he reacts. I'm surprised someone didn't disassemble him before this. Certainly would have saved the country a lot of trouble...

I think in his own mind he has decided that he dominated and won the debate and he won't be willing to change anything about debate preparations or hire different people to help him prepare. Not that different people training him would matter, because the individual being trained is so clearly unfit for the job. Kind of like trying to build a bridge but instead of concrete using a mixture of lawn clippings, kitty litter, and bat $#it.

Now that Trump has declined a 2nd debate with Harris he'll not be subjected to any of those questions. It doesn't matter really because he has no answers, he never has.

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From the NYTimes a couple days ago. GOOD questions!

Unanswered questions


Two weeks ago, The Morning published a list of questions that we wished Kamala Harris would answer. Today — the day of the debate between Harris and Donald Trump — we’re publishing questions for Trump. As before, my Times colleagues who are covering the campaign helped put this list together.

The economy
1. The signature legislation of your presidency was a tax cut that disproportionately helped the wealthy. Now you want to make this legislation permanent — and expand it. How will a tax cut geared toward the rich help most American families?

2. The federal debt is already large, and your tax cut would expand it. Do you have any plans to reduce the debt?

3. You have sent mixed signals about whether you will again try to repeal Obamacare. Will you? And when will you release your own health care plan, as you’ve long promised?

4. You have proposed a big tariff on goods coming into this country. Many business executives and economists say it will raise consumer prices. Why do you think they’re wrong?

5. You have signaled that you want to end the Federal Reserve’s independence and help set interest rates yourself. When other countries have politicized their central banks, inflation has tended to rise. Why do you favor this idea?

6. You promised to pass an infrastructure bill as president but didn’t. President Biden did — along with bipartisan laws on veterans’ health, manufacturing and more. Why has he been a more bipartisan president than you were?

Other domestic issues
7. You’ve said that you are proud of the demise of Roe v. Wade and that states should decide abortion policy. Will you promise to veto any congressional bill that imposes new restrictions on states?

8. Many abortions occur through prescription medications. Five months ago, you said you would announce a policy on medication abortion, but you haven’t. Will you take executive actions to restrict its availability?

9. You promised to build a border wall — a policy that many voters support — but you completed only modest sections of it. Why should voters believe you will succeed in a second term?

10. You have called for the mass deportation of illegal immigrants. Whom exactly would you deport — everybody who’s in this country illegally, including children and people who’ve been here for years, or only some groups? And how would you identify and apprehend people?

11. Extreme heat, severe storms and flooding have all become more common. Yet you’ve called climate change “not our problem.” Are you worried about the world you’re leaving to your grandchildren?

Foreign policy
12. You’ve suggested that Vladimir Putin should have a freer hand to do what he wants in Europe. Would you try to withdraw the U.S. from NATO?

13. You have criticized U.S. military aid to Ukraine and pledged to end the war there in a single day. Isn’t this effectively calling for Ukraine to surrender and accept a peace deal favorable to Putin?

14. You have promised to bring home the hostages in Gaza. How would you persuade or force Hamas to release them all?

15. Middle East policy during your presidency often followed the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister. His unwillingness to compromise on big questions appears to be an obstacle to peace. Do you disagree with him on anything?

16. If Iran appeared to be building a nuclear weapon, would you order a military attack?

17. You were tougher on China than your predecessors. But you also recently abandoned your opposition to China’s ownership of TikTok, evidently after being lobbied by a Republican donor. Are you willing to stand up to China even if it costs your allies money?

Trump himself
18. You tried to overturn the 2020 election result after Biden beat you. Do you believe in American democracy?

19. On Jan. 6, 2021, rioters attacked police officers at the Capitol. You’ve praised those rioters, raised money for them, pledged to pardon them and met with their relatives. Do you understand why this angers officers who were injured in the attack and the families of those who died afterward?

20. A jury found that you had sexually abused E. Jean Carroll. Another jury convicted you for falsifying records to cover up an affair. And you have a long record of demeaning women. Do you regret any of this behavior?

21. You used your power as president to enrich yourself and your family, including by holding events at your properties. Will you do so again?

22. The governments of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the U.A.E. have invested billions of dollars with a fund run by Jared Kushner, your son-in-law, even though he has little relevant investment experience. Do you think they’re trying to curry favor with you through him?

23. Four years from now, you would be 82. In public appearances, you sometimes give incoherent answers, including a recent one about child care. Will you release your complete medical records?

24. Multiple people who watched you up close as president — including your vice president and a chief of staff — say that you’re unfit to be president. Why do so many of your own appointees feel this way?
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Trump bails. No more debates for him.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/12/politics ... index.html

Variety: 67 million people watched the debate.

UPDATE: Nielsen’s full measurement of Tuesday night’s presidential debate between vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump was strong, with 67.135 million viewers tuning in via multiple networks — led by ABC News, which handled the debate. That number was up 31% from the 51.266 million who tuned in to Trump’s debate with president Joe Biden (from CNN) in June, before the latter dropped out to endorse Harris.

Tuesday’s total accounts for telecasts across ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, Merit Street, Scripps News, Telemundo, Univision, BET, CNN, CNN en Español, Fox News Channel, Fox Business, MSNBC, Newsmax, NewsNation and PBS.

So those of us who watched a Live Stream of it on yootoob don't get counted.

Editorial Board of Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/f1a998cc-a5c ... sYNWG2-qNg

Linda Ronstadt: https://www.billboard.com/music/music-n ... 235773507/

Taylor Swift's endorsement really made a difference.
https://www.npr.org/2023/09/22/12011831 ... gistration

Karl Rove: It matters how debating candidates carry themselves. There, it was no contest. Ms. Harris came across as calm, confident, strong and focused on the future. Mr. Trump came across as hot, angry and fixated on the past, especially his own. She mastered the split screen, projecting confidence and wordlessly undercutting him by smiling while shaking her head as he spoke. Many undecided and swing voters will make up their minds less on any single issue than on their visceral reactions to the candidates. Ms. Harris did herself much good with that crowd Tuesday. Mr. Trump didn’t.

mister_coffee wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2024 1:41 pm Kamala Harris had Donald Trump's number early on in that debate. She had him reacting to her to and was able to steer him, if not necessarily where she wanted him to go, at least far away from anything that would help him. What's more, she made it look easy.

You hit it, David! She had him in a corner from the start. He looked like the crazy ol’ man down the street “hey, you kids - get off my lawn”!!
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Having stewed on this for a while, and having had a Zoom with a few overseas friends who also watched the debate with great interest, I've since figured out what was most remarkable about the debate debacle(*), at least for me:

Kamala Harris had Donald Trump's number early on in that debate. She had him reacting to her to and was able to steer him, if not necessarily where she wanted him to go, at least far away from anything that would help him. What's more, she made it look easy.

(*) Well, debacle from one candidate's perspective, anyway.