https://hub.jhu.edu/2026/02/23/will-ai- ... -obsolete/
This discussion suddenly reminded me of the response from the coal mining workers when first facing alternative energy growth and the likelihood of coal dropping into irrelevance. The miners, despite generations of poor pay and poor health and poor living standards balked at the discussions of new education that would teach new skills that would allow them to not only to adapt but raise their lifestyle standards. Change is too often attacked first and described in terms that generate fear.
AI is a game changer, it still and again makes mistakes and shouldn't be revered as omnipotent or all knowing. Because it is currently being built by people that are using it for power is the perfect demonstration of why governments must balance that use with strict and enforced laws. That's not available in our current govt which is an example of why the imbalance could wipe out more jobs.
AI
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mister_coffee
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Re: AI
Good points but there is zero evidence that the current track AI is on is going to lead to massive job losses.
If you are optimistic and generous the current generation of AI tools can increase productivity by about twenty percent. In practice in the real world it is more like ten percent. That isn't the order-of-magnitude increases you'd need to see to produce large-scale displacement of the workforce.
Yes, many companies are reducing staff "because of AI". What's really going on is a bit different:
1. A lot of companies overhired after COVID dissipated and they are covering up that mistake by saying they are using AI to reduce staff.
2. Some companies are reducing staff and using the savings to increase investment in AI.
3. Some companies are counting their chickens before they are hatched and assume their AI initiatives will all succeed so they can start layoffs now.
The current generation of AI tools seems to have inherent limitations where they require human intervention often enough that we still need humans in the loop but work often enough that they work poorly with how human attention work. And they fail catastrophically and dangerously often enough that we will have a Chernobyl moment around AI in our near future.
If you are optimistic and generous the current generation of AI tools can increase productivity by about twenty percent. In practice in the real world it is more like ten percent. That isn't the order-of-magnitude increases you'd need to see to produce large-scale displacement of the workforce.
Yes, many companies are reducing staff "because of AI". What's really going on is a bit different:
1. A lot of companies overhired after COVID dissipated and they are covering up that mistake by saying they are using AI to reduce staff.
2. Some companies are reducing staff and using the savings to increase investment in AI.
3. Some companies are counting their chickens before they are hatched and assume their AI initiatives will all succeed so they can start layoffs now.
The current generation of AI tools seems to have inherent limitations where they require human intervention often enough that we still need humans in the loop but work often enough that they work poorly with how human attention work. And they fail catastrophically and dangerously often enough that we will have a Chernobyl moment around AI in our near future.
David Bonn 
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