Cuts to disability payments access

[Rideback]

https://theintellectualistofficial.subs ... irect=true

Millions of older Americans could soon lose the safety net they’ve paid into for decades. A new Trump Administration rule quietly aims to rewrite who qualifies for disability benefits — a move experts say could become the largest Social Security cut in U.S. history.


President Trump, in a Fox News interview, vows not to “touch Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid,” while pledging to “get fraud out of there.” March 9, 2025 — 11:13 a.m. (Fox News)
The Trump Administration is preparing a rule that could sharply narrow access to Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). According to a new Urban Institute analysis drawing on former administration officials and Social Security staff, the change could reduce the share of successful applicants by as much as 20 percent—the largest potential cut in the program’s history, surpassing the Reagan-era reductions later reversed after public backlash.

This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

SSDI, a central component of Social Security, provides critical income and health protection for workers who can no longer support themselves because of severe, long-term disabilities. The proposed rule would make qualifying substantially more difficult, particularly for older workers, who already make up nearly 80 percent of disability recipients. Analysts warn that Americans over 50—especially those who have spent decades in physically demanding jobs—would be hit hardest, often in communities still grappling with industrial decline.

Although the administration has repeatedly pledged not to cut Social Security, the draft proposal would redefine how the Social Security Administration (SSA) evaluates an applicant’s ability to work. It would place stricter limits on how age and education are considered alongside medical evidence, discounting the additional barriers older applicants face when their skills no longer align with today’s job market. Under existing law, SSA must factor in age, education, and skills when determining disability status. Narrowing those criteria, experts say, would leave hundreds of thousands without a safety net.

The Urban Institute estimates that even a change half that size could deny benefits to more than 750,000 people within a decade.

The heaviest losses would likely fall on Southern and Appalachian states, as well as parts of Maine and the Rust Belt, where residents are older, less formally educated, and more likely to have worked in physically demanding industries such as mining, manufacturing, or construction. In these regions, SSDI serves not only as income support but also as a bridge to Medicare and Medicaid—benefits that could vanish under the new rules.

For many older workers, losing access to SSDI would force early retirement and permanently reduce monthly Social Security payments. It would also cut off a crucial path to health insurance: SSDI recipients qualify for Medicare two years after their disability benefits begin. Without that connection, people too young for Medicare but too ill to work could face years without coverage. Advocates warn that many would be left navigating an already strained health-care system while managing serious chronic conditions.

The ripple effects could reach far beyond individual households.

Disabled workers who exhaust savings or draw early retirement benefits spend less in local economies and require greater state-level aid. Economists caution that sweeping cuts could depress consumer spending in rural and small-town America, where SSDI payments make up a meaningful share of household income.

Critics describe the proposal as a quiet restructuring of Social Security through administrative action rather than legislation—pursued even as the SSA faces the largest staffing reduction in its history, a downsizing that has slowed service delivery and increased wait times nationwide.

Supporters inside the administration argue that the measure would tighten eligibility to ensure benefits go only to those with the most severe impairments.

Critics say the United States already operates one of the most stringent disability systems in the developed world, rejecting most initial applications and often requiring years of appeals. They warn that the proposed change would redefine disability in ways that ignore the realities of aging, health, and today’s labor market.

The Social Security Administration has not yet released the proposed rule for public comment, but lawmakers and disability-rights groups are already voicing alarm. Critics say the measure would effectively dismantle a pillar of the Social Security system for older Americans — closing the door on support for millions who have worked their whole lives just as they need it most."